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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.