🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."